Topic of the Week: Global Warming.

IceDragon · 09-06-2007, 05:16 PM

Basically, we've all heard about it in the news, on the TV, some of us may have even felt the effects ourselves, but what is it REALLY?

Does it even exist, or are we just being overly dramatic?

This topic is an attempt to shed some light on it, and I'll try to represent both sides. Debate, discuss, post articles or give opinions, or maybe just pop in to learn about the subject, it's what it's here for.

Quote:

Global Warming: How Do Scientists Know They're Not Wrong?
By Andrea Thompson, LiveScience Staff Writer

From catastrophic sea level rise to jarring changes in local weather, humanity faces a potentially dangerous threat from the changes our own pollution has wrought on Earth’s climate. But since nothing in science can ever be proven with 100 percent certainty, how is it that scientists can be so sure that we are the cause of global warming?

For years, there has been clear scientific consensus that Earth’s climate is heating up and that humans are the culprits behind the trend, says Naomi Oreskes, a historian of science at the University of California, San Diego.

A few years ago, she evaluated 928 scientific papers that dealt with global climate change and found that none disagreed about human-generated global warming. The results of her analysis were published in a 2004 essay in the journal Science.

And the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academy of Sciences and numerous other noted scientific organizations have issued statements that unequivocally endorse the idea of global warming and attribute it to human activities.

“We’re confident about what’s going on,” said climate scientist Gavin Schmidt of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Science in New York.

But even if there is a consensus, how can scientists be so confident about a trend playing out over dozens of years in the grand scheme of the Earth's existence? How do they know they didn’t miss something, or that there is not some other explanation for the world’s warming? After all, there was once a scientific consensus that the Earth was flat. How can scientists prove their position?

Best predictor wins

Contrary to popular parlance, science can never truly “prove” a theory. Science simply arrives at the best explanation of how the world works. Global warming can no more be “proven” than the theory of continental drift, the theory of evolution or the concept that germs carry diseases.

“All science is fallible,” Oreskes told LiveScience. “Climate science shouldn’t be expected to stand up to some fantasy standard that no science can live up to.”

Instead, a variety of methods and standards are used to evaluate the viability of different scientific explanations and theories. One such standard is how well a theory predicts the outcome of an event, and climate change theory has proven to be a strong predictor.

The effects of putting massive amounts of carbon dioxide in the air were predicted as long ago as the early 20th century by Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius.

Noted oceanographer Roger Revelle’s 1957 predictions that carbon dioxide would build up in the atmosphere and cause noticeable changes by the year 2000 have been borne out by numerous studies, as has Princeton climatologist Suki Manabe’s 1980 prediction that the Earth’s poles would be first to see the effects of global warming.

Also in the 1980s, NASA climatologist James Hansen predicted with high accuracy what the global average temperature would be in 30 years time (now the present day).

Hansen's model predictions are “a shining example of a successful prediction in climate science,” said climatologist Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University.

Schmidt says that predictions by those who doubted global warming have failed to come true.

“Why don’t you trust a psychic? Because their predictions are wrong,” he told LiveScience. “The credibility goes to the side that gets these predictions right.”

Mounting evidence

Besides their successful predictions, climate scientists have been assembling a “body of evidence that has been growing significantly with each year,” Mann said.

Data from tree rings, ice cores and coral reefs taken with instrumental observations of air and ocean temperatures, sea ice melt and greenhouse gas concentrations have all emerged in support of climate change theory.

“There are 20 different lines of evidence that the planet is warming,” and the same goes for evidence that greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere, Schmidt said. “All of these things are very incontrovertible.”

But skeptics have often raised the question of whether these observations and effects attributed to global warming may in fact be explained by natural variation or changes in solar radiation hitting the Earth.

Hurricane expert William Gray, of Colorado State University, told Discover magazine in a 2005 interview, "I'm not disputing that there has been global warming. There was a lot of global warming in the 1930s and '40s, and then there was a slight global cooling from the middle '40s to the early '70s. And there has been warming since the middle '70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced.”

Isaac Newton had something to say about all this: In his seminal “Principia Mathematica,” he noted that if separate data sets are best explained by one theory or idea, that explanation is most likely the true explanation.

And studies have overwhelmingly shown that climate change scenarios in which greenhouse gases emitted from human activities cause global warming best explain the observed changes in Earth’s climate, Mann said—models that use only natural variation can’t account for the significant warming that has occurred in the last few decades.

Mythic ice age

One argument commonly used to cast doubt on the idea of global warming is the supposed predictions of an impending ice age by scientists in the 1970s. One might say: First the Earth was supposed to be getting colder; now scientists say it’s getting hotter—how can we trust scientists if they’re predictions are so wishy-washy?

Because the first prediction was never actually made. Rather, it’s something of an urban climate myth.

Mann says that this myth started from a “tiny grain of truth around which so much distortion and misinformation has been placed.”

Scientists were well aware of the warming that could be caused by increasing greenhouse gases, both Mann and Schmidt explained, but in the decades preceding the 1970s, aerosols, or air pollution, had been steadily increasing. These tiny particles tended to have a cooling effect in the atmosphere, and at the time, scientists were unsure who would win the climate-changing battle, aerosols or greenhouse gases.

“It was unclear what direction the climate was going,” Mann said.

But several popular media, such as Newsweek, ran articles that exaggerated what scientists had said about the potential of aerosols to cool the Earth.

But the battle is now over, and greenhouse gases have won.

“Human society has made a clear decision as to which direction [the climate] is going to go,” Mann said.

Future predictions

One of the remaining skeptics, is MIT meteorologist Richard Lindzen. While he acknowledges the trends of rising temperatures and greenhouse gases, Lindzen expressed his doubt on man’s culpability in the case and casts doubt on the dire predictions made by some climate models, in an April 2006 editorial for The Wall Street Journal.

“What the public fails to grasp is that the claims neither constitute support for alarm nor establish man's responsibility for the small amount of warming that has occurred,” Lindzen wrote.

To be sure, there is a certain degree of uncertainty involved in modeling and predicting future changes in the climate, but “you don’t need to have a climate model to know that climate change is a problem,” Oreskes said.

Climate scientists have clearly met the burden of proof with the mounting evidence they’ve assembled and the strong predictive power of global warming theory, Oreskes said-- global warming is something to pay attention to.

Schmidt agrees. “All of these little things just reinforce the big picture,” he said. “And the big picture is very worrying.”

IceDragon · 09-06-2007, 05:21 PM

Further Reading:

Glaciers: Then and Now

Instant Expert

Siberia

Tropics

Europe

ChRis_StuaRt · 09-06-2007, 05:49 PM

i don't think there is such a thing as global warming. the world goes through cycles of hot and cold weather and through out time it has been demonstarted for instance ice ages etc, then warm years.

IceDragon · 09-06-2007, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChRis_StuaRt

i don't think there is such a thing as global warming. the world goes through cycles of hot and cold weather and through out time it has been demonstarted for instance ice ages etc, then warm years.

The problem is that this isn't JUST climate shift - this is happening far earlier than it should do because human activity has exacerbated the conditions in which it happens.

Through our own lack of foresight, we've brought about the possibility of mass extinction for thousands, if not millions of species.

Climate shift happens once every 10,000 to 14,000 years - we've done this after just 3,000. There's no denying we're the root cause of the early shift.

1quick1 · 09-07-2007, 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChRis_StuaRt

i don't think there is such a thing as global warming.

There is irrefutable evidence the planet is warming so I ensure global warming is real. Whether humans are the direct cause or if this is a natural Earth cycle is to be left for debate.

wala · 09-07-2007, 03:38 AM

We are definately NOT the cause of glaobal warming - which as chris pointed out - is a natural occurance.

There was a programm that was i think nearly 2 hours long?; on UKs BBC1 about how the whole thing is a sham!

One of the best parts of it was when it showed the above, Al Gore, giving a seminar to a group of people about how CO2 levels have risen and that it coincides with humnas exhausting all this CO2..

What the scientists then pointed out was the fact that the big graph that he was showing to compare temperature of the earth (over like millions or thousands of year) and the CO2 levels was actually set up wrong! It was a very good show and if someone can fnd it, i'll give them many reps

One piece of info - All the world's active volcanos give off more CO2 (which is said to cause global warming) each year that ALL of the man-made and animal made CO2 put together... says it all IMO...

Al Gore - looking for a job and is just another guy jumping on the global warming band wagon which has turned out to be a multi million £/$ industry (yes its now pretty much an industry)

ChRis_StuaRt · 09-07-2007, 11:50 AM

there is also irrefutable evidence that suggests it is just natural occurance . the scientists against global warming can argue just as well as the scientists who claim it to be global warming.
i beg to differ on this topic.

1quick1 · 09-07-2007, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChRis_StuaRt

there is also irrefutable evidence that suggests it is just natural occurance . the scientists against global warming can argue just as well as the scientists who claim it to be global warming.
i beg to differ on this topic.

It's true. The fact is global warming exists. Exactly as I said. What is causing it is really the debate.

IceDragon · 09-07-2007, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1quick1

It's true. The fact is global warming exists. Exactly as I said. What is causing it is really the debate.

Precisely.

wala · 09-07-2007, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1quick1

It's true. The fact is global warming exists. Exactly as I said. What is causing it is really the debate.

Yup.

But it's definately nothing anyone can do anything about - in fact, simply because we THINK we are the problem and are trying to sort it out by cutting carbon, could actually be DAMAGING the NATURAL way the earth moves through its different stages...

The best example here it chrisy's - we've have an ICE AGE - there were no cars, planes etc, not many humans (no where like today's amounts) yet the earth literally frozen up big time... its also gone into periods where its been very hot for years - alot hotter than it is now

So why the big fuss when we start to go into a period where its starting to heat up a little? big wow!

So what if the ice caps melt? that what they done probably thousands of times already and they've also been extra frozen than they've been in the last thousand years too...

so what if some land gets flooded? its happened lots and lots of time before!! there's land that people love on that was once underground - there's ground that's underwater right now that will one day be habitable!!

People need to accept it and think of ways to live around the natural changes of the earth IMO guys...

IceDragon · 09-07-2007, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wala

Yup.

But it's definately nothing anyone can do anything about - in fact, simply because we THINK we are the problem and are trying to sort it out by cutting carbon, could actually be DAMAGING the NATURAL way the earth moves through its different stages...

The best example here it chrisy's - we've have an ICE AGE - there were no cars, planes etc, not many humans (no where like today's amounts) yet the earth literally frozen up big time... its also gone into periods where its been very hot for years - alot hotter than it is now

So why the big fuss when we start to go into a period where its starting to heat up a little? big wow!

So what if the ice caps melt? that what they done probably thousands of times already and they've also been extra frozen than they've been in the last thousand years too...

so what if some land gets flooded? its happened lots and lots of time before!! there's land that people love on that was once underground - there's ground that's underwater right now that will one day be habitable!!

People need to accept it and think of ways to live around the natural changes of the earth IMO guys...

There's no disputing that we need to adapt to it, wala, but if we can minimise the damage we ARE causing and keep those species going that we've driven almost to extinction because of our behaviour, then so much the better.

I think everyone just gets bogged down in the WHY it happened, rather than HOW can we change how we live now because of it?

wala · 09-07-2007, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IceDragon

There's no disputing that we need to adapt to it, wala, but if we can minimise the damage we ARE causing and keep those species going that we've driven almost to extinction because of our behaviour, then so much the better.

ah, but read what I just said above - it is nto WE who have caused it - its a natural occurance and altering what the earth wants to do naturally is BAD, no??

As for saving species, if we save them then great, but in a way its no big loss IMO - many, many species have become extinct before, it is unfortunately part of life on earth - same as each of us are sure to die one day... be if we can save a speices, then i'm all for it..

Quote:

Originally Posted by IceDragon

I think everyone just gets bogged down in the WHY it happened, rather than HOW can we change how we live now because of it?

Yup, we need to simply adapt as you said -thats not hard, you just... adapt?!